Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Is Profit a Dirty Word?

The old saying was that profit isn't a dirty word... On Wall Street, if you take a chance to make a few bucks on a risk, then it should be rewarded... At least that's what capitalists have been doing for years. Here is where I am with a couple of items in portfolio one and two.

In my portfolio I have the following plays running Portfolio One:
SPDR Tech Call 1/25s (up 10% since purchase last week)
TRLG PUT 10/22.5s (down 5% since purchase)
COF PUT 1/50s (up 10% since purchase)
NCC PUT 10/8s (up 60%)
PQ Call 10/20s (up 25% since purchase)
NCC Call 10/8s (down 97% since purchase)

In the 403B Portfolio Two
I still have 80% of my assets in VGPMX (Precious Metals and Mining). VEURX (A beaten down European Stock Fund) and VEIEX (Pacific Rim...Emerging Markets) both have a 10% allocation. (This last two were made as of 5/21.

In a recession, it is my belief that companies will look to innovate. I picked up the SPDRs last week on a down trading day(I have a fundamental belief that it is where you buy that ensures profit...not always where you sell), and with a bit of luck will see this bad boy run through July. TRLG is a stock his has had its fair share of volatility. It traded as low as 13.5 this year, and up to about 26.00. Currently I am down but will look to increase this position as it will hit a resistance point in the near future. COF is a was down again today, and only saved by a durable goods order. There should be a shake out in this stock in the near future. Credit card companies will try to dump the dead beats customers, and retain the winners. Much easier said than done. PQ is a kicker...up 80% at one time, I let this slip back to a point where I am actually looking to increase this position as well... Lesson learned here...Profit is not a dirty word...should have taken the money. No sweat though, I am counting on another excellent quarter from PQ and an increased demand for domestic oil...and better profit margins. NCC call is D.O.A.. It is one of few losers I had...and thus deserves further analysis. My reason for selecting this stock in a strangle was quite simple. I got caught up in the hype of this company going belly up. While I still believe NCC will get the snot beat out of it this summer, I expected more pronounced volatility (that is the key in a strangle)...For my own self-interests, I would love to hear a story about the C.E.O. being investigated for misappropriation of company assets like Tyco's Dennis Kozlowski...but Raskind is a straight shooter and a pillar of the community. I'll have to rely on the greed and stupidity of the mortgage business, coupled with slowing revenue in other areas. (I'm sure Raskind and his former boss Daberko knew nothing about that huh?) And they couldn't wait to get into the "hot markets like Florida?" Maybe just maybe a Presidential VETO (which thus far is likely after all what does Bush have to lose) on the financial package that is sailing through Congress will shake this stock up a little more! The banks will refuse to renegotiate loan deals with distressed buyers(see my blog entitled Greetings from D.C.. Selfish? Nope...just a realist here! The financials will want a better deal...

IN Trade...
Mild disappointment with this lovely organization because I think McCain is a slam dunk in the Fall Election...Currently trading at 38.00. Unfortunately, I cannot use their credit card processor as U.S. companies have certain regulations that will not allow certain time of gaming activities on our cards. I will either send a money order...personal check...or a wire. I do not like the idea of giving anyone my bank account number.

Traffic Update
The Article I submitted for SA was published. (For those of you who are counting it is my sixth.) My traffic "hit" numbers as of 8:52 EST are 353 since Tuesday morning with a click through ratio of about 5% (decent for industry standards). However, I am disappointed in the placement of the article as Big Ben's Credit Card Moves was placed under the "Editor's Choice" column. What's Next for CC Companies was simply listed under my site. That being said, the article still appeared on Yahoo Financial Blogs. I am interested in finding other financial sites that will receive submission article for additional exposure. This is a concept that should be explored by all readers of this site.

Tribe Talk
At last report Eric Wedge was looking for a gun to end the misery. Hafner (injured) least that is the story for now...If it is not the bats it is the bull pen. It is difficult to watch a team squander so many close games...especially when the starting pitching is looking pretty solid. In my humble arm-chair manager opinion, some senior leadership is desperately needed. Like football great Knute Rockne said "Winning is a habit...unfortunately, so is losing." The Cleveland Indians should not be allowed to get into the habit of folding in pressure situations. Pretty soon, scouts will need to find a Roy Hobbs type to get the ball rolling... Maybe the Tribe should talk to Tony Gwynn to be our hitting coach...something.

1 comment:

AX said...

Bri, fair accounting of your positions. Just remember, it's not a profit until you sell it. I'm wishing I had held my TRLG calls a little longer, but you can't time everything perfectly...we need a return to NCC volatility.

Intrade may no longer be the play on McCain. Bodog is offering 3-2 odds without juice, but again, funding your account is the issue.