Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Tribe...Winnebagos...and Three Titans...

Dear Readers,

Talking Tribe...
I am still shaking my head about the Tribe and their closer Borowski. Talk about a closer who leaves you on the edge of your seat. Too many times he had put himself into jams...and some way shape or form, pitched himself out...or gotten lucky with good defense. Last night, fate caught up with him, and he left the field giving up a walk-off grand-slam to the Angels. I'll consider myself an arm-chair coach...manager...quarterback today. However, I would like to see a bit more dominance in an Indian closer if they are to make a run at the pennant this year! Let's see what the Indians Skipper Wedge has worked out with the rest of the Cleveland brain-trust.

Today was met with disappointment and hope. Last week I bailed on my 7/17.50 put on WGO. While I believe the rationale is there for it to be a long-term loser, it crossed an investment threshold that told me to dump it last Friday. Today, I see that WGO has now moved South across the Mason-Dixon line once again. We'll see how this one pans out. It may be hard-learned lesson in options trading.

Three Titans
AKS, ZEUS and CLF have been on the radar screen for quite a while now. Hesitation can kill a winner...and save one from a loser. In this case these three Supermen (metal products) have CRUSHED the market in terms of performance. AKS appears to be winner that still has legs. After battering its union in several lockouts, AKS appears poised to make another run well past its 52 week high that was reached today $64.80. I am currently exploring the 9/70.00 call which is trading a bit rich now at 7.30. I'll keep readers posted as if there is still opportunity to board this ship. I look for the price to hit 85.00 by September. ZEUS was off mildly today, I do believe it will test its high once again. Quite possibly as soon as Friday. We'll know by then whether that ship has left port... Last week I told myself to buy CLF at 135...and before I knew if this train kept on rolling to another all-time high of 147 now that is just crazy. Interestingly enough, my students noted in class that PETROLEUM and IRON ORE are the two most sought after natural resources on the planet. CLF is the world leader in iron ore production. Heck, even Cramer jumped on this bandwagon. The only question is how much of a pull-back will it get when CLF splits in May? Shrug off the latest breather in this sector!

National City Bank
The hope of the NCC put and call play is looking better all the time. While I have been advised by several sources that these waters may be more difficult to navigate, it appears that NCC will dump on more bad news...bump with a sale of company assets...and the rest will be left for dead! It appears that the Cleveland Federal Reserve will work with other regional banks at this point to mull over the pieces parts of this institution, and preserve as much of the bank (even through sale) as possible. A complete bank failure in a Midwest market would be devastating.

At this point I am also consider 10/65 BP $4.0...this stock has been lagging and should benefit from the last summer of Bush's Presidency!

Question of the Day???

Take the over/under on this. Joe Borowski has added or taken away five years of life on the average Indians fan?


boom and doom said...

Tiger Coach,

As I've mentioned before, I don't really know where this economy is heading right now. Everyone/thing seems to happy right now, but I think it is a temporary lull. The Fed's actions have seemed to take hold and I think they are propping up the economy for Bush and the Republicans since they are still the loudest bug in their ear. The Republicans know they don't have a chance if the economy tanks which seemed likely only 3-4 weeks ago. What the Fed has done will cause inflationary pressures in the future and it is only a matter of time until they can't keep propping up the dollar and markets. After the election, I think we will be back on that doomsday path everyone was recently talking about. Then we will have the stagflation, high interest rates, Dow in the 8,000s, gold at $1,500+, etc. The one thing the Fed can't control is the price of oil and that is the lynch pin in the economy. The Fed and Bush can pressure the oil companies to keep retail prices in check until after the election with threats of investigating price gouging/collussion and windfall profits taxes (which I think they have already done). But after the election, the pressure is taken away and the prices run wild causing further inflationary pressures on the economy. Watch what happens to consumers then.

Well, I originally started writing not wanting to talk about the economy, but I think I may have found my mojo again. What I wanted to talk about was the Tribe. The Indians say no, but scouts are saying Borowski is hurt. I believe this and look for him to soon be on the disabled list with the hot dog guy or Betancourt taking over the closers role. I would like to see them go with Kobayashi since he has closed in Japan and Betancourt has not really been in that role for an extended period of time. Plus, he is so good in the setup role. If we really did get the Nathan's hot dog contest winner in disguise of a pitcher, you can always put Betancourt in the closers role then. The Tribe will be alright. They've only played nine games. It's a marathon, not a sprint. I long for the days of Jose Mesa. That guy was money in the bank when he took the mound.


AX said...

Just beat me B&D. I was going to say Borowski reminds me of the days of Doug Jones. After smoking 2 or 3 packs during the game, Jones would come in throwing 2 speeds, slow and slower. He'd look good for a few games then someone would wait on his changeup and hit it about 800 feet.

I'm getting more concerned every day that there are 2 economies. The one we live in, and the one the market makers live in. Housing has joined the two temporarily but the dire reality of our economy is certainly not reflected in stock prices. It's a tough curve to stay ahead of given our status as regular working guys.