Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Is the Rally Real???


One New York Post writer seems to think so...Here is his argument...  Anyone care to respond?

1. Average hourly wages are $18.90, up from $18.52 a year ago. (Before employers hire full-time, they get their workers to work overtime, resulting in higher pay).

2. Aggregate weekly hours worked is the highest it's been since June 2009 -- again, suggesting overtime. Only so much overtime can be worked before hiring begins.

3. Industrial production index up 9 months in a row after plummeting 13 percent from December 2007 to June 2009.

4. Retail sales up 10 percent year over year.

5. GDP last quarter showed 5.9 percent annual growth.

6. Initial unemployment claims have gone from a peak of 643,000 in April 2009 to 480,000 now.

7. The Greek debt crisis seems to be ending without major fallout in the form of other nations defaulting.

8. Home-improvement-related retail sales were up 3.1 percent, suggesting consumers are putting money back into their homes again.

9. Railroad traffic, a sign of interest in commodities, is up 16 percent, the highest since the recession began.

10. Rail shipments of metals were strongest as manufacturers are rebuilding inventories.

11. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America both announced loan delinquencies were decreasing. JPMorgan also announced plans to hire 9000, their biggest hiring spree since the recession began.

12. UPS profits were 20 percent higher than expected as US shipments saw their first year-over-year increase since 2007.

13. Economists estimate that China GDP grew by 11 percent last quarter, the most in 3 years.

14. Singapore posted GDP growth of 9 percent last quarter and South Korea had the largest unemployment rate drop in over a decade.

15. A sharp increase in M&A activity where the acquirers are using cash rather than stock to buy companies (showing confidence in their businesses).

16. Target, Kohls, TJX and Aeropostale all increased earnings guidance for the next quarter, showing retail strength across the board.

17. Auto sales are spiking. March annualized auto sales showed a 15 percent gain over February.

18. ISM non-manufacturing index (showing the strength of non-manufacturing indexes) had the highest percent increase in five years.

19. The National Association of Realtors said that pending sales of existing homes jumped 8.2 percent over last month.

20. Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the biggest gain in four years.

21. Ford reported the best monthly sales in 25 years.

22. The government has made money on its Troubled Asset Relief Program bailouts of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, American Express, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and almost every other bank they lent to.

23. Consumer spending had its fastest increase in three years last month.

24. Intel, a barometer of the entire tech sector, saw its earnings quadruple from a year ago and said its earnings were the best ever for that period. They also reported record results for the chips used in mobile devices and said corporate techn spending was growing across the US.

25. Despite growth and low interest rates, inflation is almost non-existent with the CPI coming in at 0.1 percent last month."

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