Sunday, October 5, 2008

Observation Points... Stocks on the Board

Quotes from the Local Papers...

"Only a few generations ago, a life well lived wasn't lived on borrowed money. Patience not purchases was priceless. Credit cards were only used for emergencies. People paid cash for new cars. Paying off a home mortgage was cause for pride and celebration." (1)

Questions Financial Institutions have on the Big Bailout

1. How much will the government pay for the loans?

(Hopefully market value, after all what is the value of a non-performing asset?

2. Will there be any strings attached?

(This is not free money, it is a loan from the tax-payers of the U.S.
government... you banks should know by now that there is no such thing as free.)

Financials Interest in the Bailout Plan...

"The critical question is price..." RBC Capital Markets

"We think it is a good thing that this bill passed...We are in the process of understanding the ramifications and then will be able to make our decisions on how to proceed." AmTrust (Formerly known as Ohio Savings)

"It's something we are following closely... I think we'll want to wait until the dust settles." Fifth Third

"We do not have toxic assets which are the primary focus of this bill." KeyCorp

"We are quite interested" in potentially selling loans "but it is not our only alternative." National City CEO Peter Raskind

"We don't have a whole heck of a lot to get rid of." Marc Stefanski Third Federal (1)


The new street is in! Model home is finished! Build one or two homes at absolute cost in my suburban housing development. If you believe the bottom is near, we should talk. (4)

Credit Implications

Credit Cards: Existing card holders see limits cut, fewer offers, higher fees and interest rates.
Student Loans: The cost of loans will rise. Families need to rely less on loans and have more money saved for college.
Home Mortgages: Don't be surprised if 20% down becomes standard again. Credit scores and documentation will be needed.
Auto Loans: Bring credit scores of 700 or higher and proof you can pay. (2)

In essence, people for the last 10 years have been encouraged to use credit. It has almost been seen as a Constitutional right... Now it appears that credit will be tightened at the consumer level. This means that average everyday American will be facing several problems: (3)

1. Servicing existing debt...
2. Establishing new credit... (the old standard of having a pulse will be the exception as opposed to the rule.)
3. Living within one's means...

Stock Market
Calls...puts... whatever, this is an extremely volatile market. Evidently, the bailout plan that was passed last week has yet to be digested... Do not be surprised with an emergency rate cut this week... The U.S. will be expected to perform counter-measures... and the world community will follow suit. A G-8 meeting will be held this weekend... The powers that be will attempt to form a game plan to address the economic downturn... and stop it from becoming a crisis.

CMG, BWLD, RRGB, ANF, TXI, URBN, TSCO, MLM, BYI, LVS, WYNN, and CLF are all on the radar screen. We are all reminded that Wynn and Adelson were geniuses for expanding into China because there was too much upside potential. Evidently, we are learning that recessions can spread everywhere... A global slowdown is a global slowdown...I am looking for a big up day in the market to move on a couple of these stocks... In the meantime, a few low ball bids could get filled with the right pop in the market... There are no long-term plays at this time. Simply, booking profits when profits are made. I would much rather be playing upside potential of the stock markets. However this is the situation we have been afforded.

Sources Cited
1. Cleveland Plain Dealer, Business Section, 10/04/2008
2. Cleveland Plain Dealer, World Section, 10/5/2008
3. Cleveland Plain Dealer, Business Section, 10/05/2008
4. Cleveland Plain Dealer, Classified Section, 10/5/2008
5. Various internet sources


Jim said...

Thanks for all your insights - get some sleep. Your bro.

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