Friday, June 13, 2008

Weekly Wrap 6/13/2008

Stock

P=Put

C=Call

Purch. Date

Purch. Price

per share

Friday Close

6/12/

2008

Net Gain/Loss

Previous Week 6/6/2008

Net Gain/Loss

Week Ending

6/13/2008

BAC 1/30s P

6/4/2008

3.00

4.20

22%

40%

XLK 1/25s C

5/22/08

1.70

1.40

12%

(-17.6)

TRLG 10/22.5s P

5/14/08

3.20

2.55

(31%)

(-20%)

COF 1/50s P

4/28/08

8.10

10.70

17%

32%

PQ 10/20s C

4/15/08

2.60

5.00

115%

92%

NCC 10/10s C

4/09/08

1.30

.10

(96%)

(-96%)

NCC 10/8s P

4/07/08

1.55

3.10

106%

106%

BAC 1/27.50s P

6/12/08

3.15

3.05

N/A

(-3%)

COF 1/40s P

6/12/08

6.00

5.52

N/A

(-8%)

*Additions highlighted.

BAC gained 18% from last week’s close. BAC experienced considerable pressure as the financials were shaken by more bad news on LEH and to a lesser extent KEY. Note that this position was increased on 6/12/2008 on positive retail news. I am contemplating increasing this position again if 1/45s become more affordable. See blog entry “Credit Card Underwriters in Jeopardy” for complete details.

XLK took on a bit of water this week moving from a winner to a loser…as the Yahoo MSFT merger fell through. Look for a rebound next week.

TRLG moved 11% points closer to the break even point. While I am still down 20% on this one, the fundamentals are still there to see this stock retrace its move up with a move down.

COF increased 15% from last week’s position. This one was also up close to 45% at one time, but backed off with positive retail news, Greenspan’s comments, and the short-lived hope of a recovery in the dollar. I increased my position on this one as well.

PQ was dropped 23%…this one was on a roller coaster ride. Should the energy sector become a “hot area” again, it may be time to take profits. While G8 is calling for increased oil output, the oil is still priced in dollars...and as of late a dollar isn't worth a dollar anymore. Good volatility here!!!

NCC unchanged. I will look to liquidate this position on more bad news from the bank. However, I will hold on to the calls in hope of a buyout…wishful thinking here.


Tracking Thomas Lee
JP Morgan's Thomas Lee tauted three sectors last Friday indicating that each should finish the year in positive territory. From a pure statistical point of view, he was off to a god start. A week of huge volatility ended in his favor. Interestingly enough, it is prudent to point out the fact that NONE of the selections finished higher than a six-tenths of a percent gain. So from my point of view, congratulations are in order, however I'm much more comfortable playing the market my way. I will continue to track MISTA LEE.

Stock

Date Recommended

Purchase

Price

Price as of

6/13/2008

Net Gain/Loss

XLF

6/6/2008

23.33

23.38

0.2 %

XLY

6/6/2008

31.26

31.72

.01%

XLE

6/6/2008

86.02

86.60

.06%

1 comment:

AX said...

TC, you are in the enviable position of having to decide whether to take excellent gains in some position offset by losses in a few others. PQ has already been a homer, now do you play for the grandslam? I worry for you with TRLG, but past volatility has been tremendous....BAC still might have a way to fall, expecially if CFC officially goes bankrupt. Good luck!