Sherlock Holmes does not work at the SEC. The questions is who does? Today a blistering report was released that pointed out how security regulators missed red flags. According to Inspector General David Kotz "Despite numerous credible and detailed complaints, the SEC never properly examined or investigated Madoff's trading and never took the necessary, but basic, steps to determine if Madoff was operating a Ponzi scheme." (1) Now investors and Wall Street alike are facing a government that may want to go into punishment mode, or use financiers as a election scape goat for their own political short-comings. Of course, the real concern should now be that the government would over-regulate... As of now, I believe government officials are afraid to touch Wall Street do to its volatility... so tongue lashings and grand standing may have to suffice in the near term... down the road many reforms may get conveniently swept under the rug.
Interesting that the market has reacted so poorly the last three trading days. Monday, it was speculation that the market has come too far too fast. I believe the Tuesday theme ran something along the lines of the ripple effects from an over-valued China. Today, worse than expected employment numbers coupled with lower than expected factory orders put the market on its heels once again. I find it interesting that no news was bad enough to stop the market rally from March to August. Now it appears a more rational approach is besetting the markets.
Trades
Downward pressure on the financials has influenced both by C 9/5 calls as well as FAZ puts. Should the employment numbers be within reason... or better than expected, we could see a sharp move up.
SRS I own common and have considered adding positions to this one since it is trading so low. I ran a hedge with puts as well and will need a meltdown reminiscent of Chernobyl to make this one work out. However, I will maintain the approach of calculated risks for calculated rewards.
I am looking for downward pressure on UNG, SLV, and a may even look at BAC should it breech $15.00. It is not that I am cracked up about the market right now. I am not. I do think that successful trades can me made, but only if due diligence is done and individual stocks can make a run. I am certain that SP 500 funds will be in a holding pattern for a while.
Shorts are starting to look more attractive again. WYNN is hitting resistence as is AMZN and FXI. Keep those birds on the radar screen.
1. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090902/ts_nm/us_sec_madoff
When Economics, finance, and history form a convergence, then it is time to look at the "trend". This blog is designed to see how the little pieces fit together to form the big picture. . The blog will also address some social and political aspects of the United States and beyond. College football season will offer weekly complimentary selections v.s. the Las Vegas Line.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Blowing off a Bit of Steam...
Greetings Readers,
Again, I took a hiatus from blogging due to a number of technical difficulties with my computer and then my monitor. They were remedied by the purchase of a new tower from www.tigerdirect.com. Later, I discovered that I needed a new monitor as well. This purchase was made at Dell where I was able to find a 19" flat screen monitor for $94.00 with taxes. Shipping is always "free."
It is good to be back, as I have missed updating this blog.
The market has been simply amazing. But, the economic data that seems to be fueling market sentiment is even more amazing...almost as if it is too good to believe. I do believe that a portion of that data has been manufactured... or at best analyzed through some of the rosiest colored glasses that are available. But who am I to argue at this point. I have taken a few lumps on the short side of things, and can truly appreciate the education I have received via Wall Street University.
I have a few shorts that expire in January... I will continue to see these as the "downside insurance policy" for the next three and a half months or so. I had at various times convinced myself that this rally was too good to be true, and in some regards have had to pinch myself when companies like AIG rally $11.00 in one day. I need not remind readers that this one was and still is on government life support. At best, this is a clear indication that Wall Street sees the worst is behind AIG... and let's face it, if there is another meltdown to come, Uncle Sam will be there to plug the hole of this sinking ship with more taxpayer money.
Hey, who am I to complain? I did make a few plays to the upside in C (currently up 50% from my purchase price). I also scored well on SSO... and let a couple of down days in early August spook me out of some even more significant profits... but heck, as the old saying goes, profit is never a dirty word.
Now, I am keeping my fingers crossed that the 9/9s on SSR and the 9/23s on FAZ puts can finish strong for me. In both cases I actually looked for some of the most volatile and financially sensitive ETFS, and saw opportunity with low risk loss... and possible home run potential upside. I will need a bit of help... Maybe Congress will back off the plan to audit the Fed... maybe anther Wall Street darling will have "better than expected earnings" or better yet, "narrower than expected losses."
President Obama may suffer his first political setback as it appears that his Health Care Bill... or whomever this bad boy belongs to these days could be in some serious trouble. All along my position has been one of economic responsibility... sure up Medicare and Medicaid... and help create a more efficient medical community. I am concerned that Pandora's Box will be opened with the current attitude in Congress. In one of his town hall meetings, Representative LaTourette admitted that the political climate in D.C. is the most frustrating he has encountered since becoming a Congresssmen over 10 years ago. He specifically noted the TARP, CAP in Trade, and now the Health Care Reform bill as points of frustration... and that the momentum of "Get-er Done" politics has been both irresponsible and outright dangerous. Additional amendments to bills of 1000 pages (see TARP) and a over 300 pages (see Cap in Trade) echo pork barrel spending in its most vile form. It is kind of funny to write about ridiculous spending bills. This evening I sat down with my daughter to read a school story about the Statue of Liberty. There was actually a collection between public and private owners taken to pay for the pedestal. Something that all Americans joined hands together to accomplish. When is the last time we have heard a whisper of working together... or saving in Congress?
Enough pontificating for now. I will return by Sunday with another article. I hope to return to a more scholarly format of quoting sources and analyzing economic trends.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Dollars for Dummies, The Las Vegas Experiment, Las Vegas Real Estate, Culture and Moralism 101
Dollars for Dummies
To call the Cash for Clunkers program a success is an understatement. A wildly popular program that takes gas-guzzlers off the road in lieu of newer fuel efficient cars has middle America buzzing with excitement. To be frank, I hadn't paid much attention to the program until two of my neighbors decided to trade in their "clunkers" for a new cars. Wiktoionary.com defines a clunker as a decrepit car. For those of you who want to get technical, decrepit is defined as worn and broken down by hard use. If that is the intention of the Cash for Clunkers program, than neither of my neighbor's cars fit the description of a clunker. Rather each car was less than seven years old... and neither had rust. However, each "clunker" got less gas mileage than the car that was purchased. I would not call the program a boon for automakers, while Honda, Hyundai, Toyota, and Ford have seen an uptick in sales, all automakers are well below their 2007 numbers. Scrap dealers such as Alcoa (AA), Metal Management (MM), or Steel Dynamics (STLD). Some grumblings echoed of Smoot-Hawley claiming that monies should only be spent on American made cars. Can anyone really name a car that is totally Made in America? Sorry GM and Chrysler, you will not be enjoying this feeding of public dole.
The Las Vegas Experiment
About 50 years ago, the mob financed Buggsy Siegel's experiment that became known as Las Vegas. It was a city that was built is the desert... a place which under any normal circumstances would be seen as valueless land.
Today Las Vegas is known as the most entertaining city on the planet... A city dedicated to hedonism... the good life... fun... and over-indulgence. Still though, everyone I spoke to in Las Vegas cited a marked downturn in revenue. It's not to say that the casinos are not making money... the casinos are simply making less which is requiring many cash-strapped organizations like LVS to seek any financing arrangements. Casinos are all vying for the high end gambler. This is the guy who thinks nothing of dropping a $100,000 on a game of blackjack. Here is a list of casinos who are completing for those gamblers and shoppers:
Mandalay Bay, The Palazzo, The Wynn, Belaggio, and Mirage
While the recession has really hit all social classes in the United States, we were reminded that companies like WYNN seem to be less prone to losing gamblers... Should the recession receive two or three indications of bad news, I believe any one of these can be shorted near their March lows.
Las Vegas Real Estate Market
I have friend who teachers school in Las Vegas. Clark County Schools pays him well. There are no property taxes. The state pays 100% of his retirement. During the latest real estate boom in Las Vegas, he purchased a home for $275,000. A three bedroom cement slab with no grass located in the desert. Today, his home is worth $125,000. A mortgage broker who bought a home across the street paid $349,000 for his and has seen a loss of nearly $200,000 in equity.
But there is a plan to take care of everything. The mortgage broker is going to do a "short-sale" on his home... and bailout on his mortgage note. He is actually talking to my friend to do the same thing on his home. Don't ask me how, but this could be the way that homeowners attempt to crawl out from under the mortgages of homes which have lost over 50% of their value.
In areas further from the Las Vegas Strip, the term "Suburban Ghetto" now strikes a chord as homeowners and speculators alike are finding someone...anyone to live in the properties... In some cases, homes that were purchased for over $300,000 are now part of Section 8 housing.
Culture and Moralism 101
Middle class values are simple when it comes to education. Work hard in school. Get good grades. Get into a good college. And get a good job.
According to one teacher in Las Vegas, those values can be thrown right out the door. "The kids in my class have parents who deal blackjack and earn $80,000 a year. A valet at the right hotel can make an easy $100,000. The average parent in a city like Las Vegas does not stress education because it is more about the hustle than it is about the brains. Street Smarts are what you need to survive there. Save the books for those who earn money to visit.
KO System
I gamble more for entertainment...but let's face it... I also play to win. Here are my success and failures in Las Vegas:
Sports Betting: 4-2 in
Blackjack: I lost more than I won. In each case, I was AHEAD in my winnings only to give them back to the house with aggressive play. I used the KO Card Counting System along with basic BJ Strategy. In Single Deck BJ a +3 count is the time to get aggressive betting...from raising the bet to doubling down. And that is where strategy failed me. I will re-evaluate my victories and defeats in BJ and look to ammend methodology that failed me.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Big Ben is Bumming
Dear Readers,
The long established checks and balances system has to some extent been
tested in the latest financial crisis. A test of the Checks and Balances system is in essence a test over of our democracy. As duly noted, Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson were extremely suspicious of the financiers of the United States. They believed that if this class of individuals were given too much power, they could manipulate, and in essence run the entire country. According to the U.S.
Constitution, Article I Section VIII gives Congress the power to “To
coin Money, regulate the Value thereof.” However, after the Financial
Panic of 1907, Congress agreed that an institution should be created
which would “could provide a ready reserve of liquid assets in case of
financial panics and would also provide for a currency that could expand
and contract as the seasonal U.S. economy dictated.”
Glass-Stegal Act of 1933
It is important to review some of the safeguards that were put in place regarding the awesome power of the Federal Reserve in general, and the financial sector in particular The Glass-Stegal Act of 1933 went to great lengths to limit the power of financiers and their influence. Later this century, a growing number of lobbyists saw the act as antiquated and limiting. Two separate groups underscored positions on Glass-Stegal.
The argument for preserving Glass-Stegal (as written in 1987):
1. Conflicts of interest characterize the granting of credit - lending
- and the use of credit - investing - by the same entity, which led to
abuses that originally produced the Act.
2. Depository institutions possess enormous financial power, by virtue
of their control of other people’s money; its extent must be limited
to ensure soundness and competition in the market for funds, whether
loans or investments.
3. Securities activities can be risky, leading to enormous losses. Such
losses could threaten the integrity of deposits. In turn, the Government
insures deposits and could be required to pay large sums if depository
institutions were to collapse as the result of securities losses.
4. Depository institutions are supposed to be managed to limit risk.
Their managers thus may not be conditioned to operate prudently in more
speculative securities businesses. An example is the crash of real
estate investment trusts sponsored by bank holding companies (in the
1970s and 1980s).
The argument against preserving the Act (as written in 1987):
1. Depository institutions will now operate in “deregulated”
financial markets in which distinctions between loans, securities, and
deposits are not well drawn. They are losing market shares to securities
firms that are not so strictly regulated, and to foreign financial
institutions operating without much restriction from the Act.
2. Conflicts of interest can be prevented by enforcing legislation
against them, and by separating the lending and credit functions through
forming distinctly separate subsidiaries of financial firms.
3. The securities activities that depository institutions are seeking
are both low-risk by their very nature, and would reduce the total risk
of organizations offering them -- by diversification.
4. In much of the rest of the world, depository institutions operate
simultaneously and successfully in both banking and securities markets.
Lessons learned from their experience can be applied to our national
financial structure and regulation.[7]
This Week...
Big Ben Bernanke is struggling with Congress' new interest in his powers, and the far-reaching influence of the Federal Reserve. While Bernanke would like Congress to allow free-wielding power, it is Congress who has increased its scrutiny. According to Bloomberg News, "Bernanke is trying to deflect a bill, co-sponsored by 276 members of the House of Representatives, that would require audits of central bank operations, including monetary policy decisions, by the Government Accountability Office." While Ron Paul and others in Congress desire a Federal Reserve with accountability, Bernanke warns that giving too much over site... or in this case too many audits of Federal Reserve books, could lead to the loss of independence that gives the bank such flexibility.
1. http://www.usconstitution.net/const.html#A1Sec1
2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Act
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act
4. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atdHeCJ1_K0U
Friday, July 10, 2009
I wouldn't necessarily call it a return to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of the 1930's, but readers should clearly digest the impact of G-8 leaders, and their push on green energies, and eco-friendly regulations... As it stands, there appears to be a growing rift between industrialized nations, and the rest of the world. As Obama led G8 countries in a push to adopt strict regulations on global warming, it was clear that the industrialized camp (those countries who are heavily industrialized... have a higher standard of living... are unionized... and produce industrialized products at a much higher cost) are competing against the up and coming countries like Brazil, China, and India whom for all intensive purposes would like to take the place of the industrialized nations. It is easy to demonize the non-G8 nations... and paint them into a corner as being the cause of higher green house emissions. Understand though, wealth and power are at the root of this discussion. And if people cannot read bwtween the lines on this one, then shame on them!!! while most research shows there is such a thing as global warming, and its consequences are dire, thi also stands as a clever way of setting up future trade barriers, and placing new stringent regulations on those nations who are growing the most rapidly...and sapping the wealth of the united States, and countiries in the Euro zne. At the end, I believe greed, power, and money will win out.
Debt for Sale
It worked for the United States under the Washington Administration... but will it work for California? This is the question that financial experts are wrestling with today as California was granted SEC clearance to sell their debt as a securities... A promise that if you loan the state of California money now, they will pay an investor back some time in the future with interest. The question becomes, is the purchase of California debt considered an act of investment or speculation? Consider the fact that the state of California is broke. True, it is one of the largest economic regions in the world. And in many ways, it shows an uncanny ability to leverage itself in ways that has created tremendous opportunities for wealth. However, the years and years of excessiveness is now being seen in massive deficits and budget short-falls. Excessive risk taking on one end, and excessive spending on the other has put California in a financial hole that it will not soon climb from. The question becomes whether it is smart to invest in California's debt. As an investment I would say hell no...however, if and when California debt becomes so excessive that it is no longer viewed as an investment, but more along the lines of a speculation, it may be time to consider that opportunity. A lesson from history would suggest that the Federal Government in some way shape or form will bail them out. Alexander Hamilton used this argument to start a national debt back in the 1788, and we have carried a debt ever since. If push comes to shove, the Feds will bail Arnold and friends out on this one!!!
Readers should not confuse Thursday's job report which showed a better than exected number with reality. The only holiday of the summer definitely threw off that number, and to be sure there were more pink slips waiting when people went back to work this week. For instance, some amusement park workers were laid off due to lower than expected attendance this summer. While we have been told that employment is "always" a trailing number in recessions, I believe we are well served to consider several other variables including a continuous job claims number that was over 6.5 milion. Throw into the mix a statistic that shows credit card default rates at a 35 year high, tapped out consuers who are now late on home equity loans, and emerging consumer driven problems for our neighbors to the North in Canada, there is no quick fix lurking around the corner. Please don't let the snake oil salesmen on CNBC convince you of something different. Aside from stimulus monies, the emperor has no clothes.
Interestingly enough, an article by Blomberg suggests that the recession will be over by 2010, and we will be in recovery mode thereafter. The report went on to suggest that there are signs that the housing industry has bottomed, which means there will be an opportunity to raise interest rates from 0%, to a 1% mark. When asked about the recent dip in stock prices “I think the market got a little bit ahead of the economy,” Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I do not think the recovery is faltering. If you look at the projections that were made in December of last year, we’re right on track.” I'll let you be the judge on this one... another reportthis morning contradicted this sentiment...
Stretching the Dollar
I did want to mention a way to save a few bucks on health insurance deductibles. When you get a bill from a hospital, and call to question some of the charges or the rate to which the primary insurance company covers the bill, I have found customer service representatives to be more than ready to wheel and deal on deductible amounts. At the end of any conversation I have had of late, the last question I ask is "Is that the best you can do on the deductible charges?" On one bill the customer service representative knocked 15% off the bill. Another konocked off 20%. Evidently, these folks have been instructed to get money and get it now. This approach alone saved my family over $100.00 last month!!!
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Oreos and Iran... The Emperor's New Clothes...
Still the Greatest
Dear Readers,
As we celebrate our country's Independence once again, I wanted to remind readers of all the things that make it great... perfect...of course not... but the simple things we take for granted such as the unalienable rights which Thomas Jefferson mentioned in the Declaration of Independence Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Governments are created by the people, and get their legitimacy to govern from the people. Any government that does not seek the people's will... or the legitimacy of those that the government is supposed to represent is no better than oppression by tyranny... Let's look around the world for a moment... China is a great economic power to which to one can deny. However, the people have no true freedoms. The government censors their internet, represses any mention of Tenimen Square, and often times dictates what the people will do as opposed to what they wish to do... At the end of the day, the majority of Chinese will push for the same freedoms that the west has...
According to Jefferson "That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed." An amazing statement if you thin about it. i would like to think that every time we hold an election in this country, we are in fact holding some type of peaceful revolution...
Iran and the Oreo

Make no doubt about it, the leadership in Iran is feeling a bit of heat. If it is the state of protest that still exists in the country (albeit underground protests),there is also a sense of illegitimacy that is increasing tension among the ruling elite. Throw into the mix a fledgling democracy to the west, and another to the east. To be sure, this is probably one of the most under-reported, and under-recognized stories in the media, if not only on Main Street. To be sure, the future of the Middle East may lie in what happens in this region over the next two to three years... Godspeed to those who are creating democracy. I also want to remind readers that the most unhealthy part on an Oreo in the creamy center... made up up factory created fats known as hydrogenated fat... Kind of reminds me of Iran...
The economic significance would be a long position on oil and gold in this scenario. i would also look specifically for companies who draw their oil fro reserves other than this area of the world.

The Emperor's New Clothes
I always laugh when I hear the story of the Emperor's New Clothes. Maybe it is the naivety of the Emperor... maybe it is his arrogance... I know part of it is the swindle that has taken place. the best part of all, is the fact that the emperor is parading himself in front of the people with nothing on...
Like fund manager Kirby Daley , I believe that stock market rally is a lot like the emperor's New clothes. Aside from the stimulus money that is currently pumping into the economy, there is no real growth (unless you are counting the unemployment line).
A sustainable rally,just like a sustainable economy is built on growth of legitimate businesses not simply emergency government spending. With all the positive spin on the economic recovery, no one has really that of the scenario where the worst has yet to come." (2) Daley is also considering low interest rate investments where a hedge in taken against inflation... and the loan can be paid back over time with worth-less (as opposed to worthless) dollars. He considers a 30 year mortgage on distressed property to be a legitimate idea.
Daley is also mindful of crumbling consumer confidence. Not simply an unemployment rate that is hoovering near 10%, but people who are starting to find a knack for thrift. I even met a doctor who is talking about fixing things in his own house... something that was unheard of two years ago!!! For instance, if the Cash for Clunkers program were to gain passage in Congress, it could create a new revenue stream for car manufacturers. Let's face it, a company like Toyota who will eventually pick up some market share from the GM and Chrylser bankruptcies in the future needs real help in the here and now. Facing an unprecedented loss (the first in 71 years), TM realizes that credit markets in the United States, and a desire for their product have created current losses at $1.6 billion through March, and could eventually hit double digits by year end. (3)
CSTR
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:CSTR Last blog I mentioned my Red Box experience. I even made reference to Red Box Killing the Video store. on our trip to Tennessee, I noted a Red Box in a McDonald's. Now it is next to impossible to get anything into a McDonald's. However, upon further research we have found a business relationship between the two entities. A Red Box in every McDonald's would mean MASSIVE leverage.
However, I am always mindful that innovation in the information age comesquicky... And when it hits... it is often fast and lethal in the business world. I believe the day of DVD rentals is approaching a rapid end. More than likely, we will witness on-line video stores via cable or satellite. Maybe even via the internet. That would turn the lights off on Red Box, Blockbuster, and any other brick and mortar business.
at $25 per share of CSTR, this might be a short candidate, especially it the stock hits $30.00 via half-baked speculation.
1. http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=404328&special=highlights
2. http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=404328&special=highlights
3. http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/23/toyota-sales-2/
Dear Readers,
As we celebrate our country's Independence once again, I wanted to remind readers of all the things that make it great... perfect...of course not... but the simple things we take for granted such as the unalienable rights which Thomas Jefferson mentioned in the Declaration of Independence Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. Governments are created by the people, and get their legitimacy to govern from the people. Any government that does not seek the people's will... or the legitimacy of those that the government is supposed to represent is no better than oppression by tyranny... Let's look around the world for a moment... China is a great economic power to which to one can deny. However, the people have no true freedoms. The government censors their internet, represses any mention of Tenimen Square, and often times dictates what the people will do as opposed to what they wish to do... At the end of the day, the majority of Chinese will push for the same freedoms that the west has...
According to Jefferson "That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed." An amazing statement if you thin about it. i would like to think that every time we hold an election in this country, we are in fact holding some type of peaceful revolution...
Iran and the Oreo
Make no doubt about it, the leadership in Iran is feeling a bit of heat. If it is the state of protest that still exists in the country (albeit underground protests),there is also a sense of illegitimacy that is increasing tension among the ruling elite. Throw into the mix a fledgling democracy to the west, and another to the east. To be sure, this is probably one of the most under-reported, and under-recognized stories in the media, if not only on Main Street. To be sure, the future of the Middle East may lie in what happens in this region over the next two to three years... Godspeed to those who are creating democracy. I also want to remind readers that the most unhealthy part on an Oreo in the creamy center... made up up factory created fats known as hydrogenated fat... Kind of reminds me of Iran...
The economic significance would be a long position on oil and gold in this scenario. i would also look specifically for companies who draw their oil fro reserves other than this area of the world.
The Emperor's New Clothes
I always laugh when I hear the story of the Emperor's New Clothes. Maybe it is the naivety of the Emperor... maybe it is his arrogance... I know part of it is the swindle that has taken place. the best part of all, is the fact that the emperor is parading himself in front of the people with nothing on...
Like fund manager Kirby Daley , I believe that stock market rally is a lot like the emperor's New clothes. Aside from the stimulus money that is currently pumping into the economy, there is no real growth (unless you are counting the unemployment line).
A sustainable rally,just like a sustainable economy is built on growth of legitimate businesses not simply emergency government spending. With all the positive spin on the economic recovery, no one has really that of the scenario where the worst has yet to come." (2) Daley is also considering low interest rate investments where a hedge in taken against inflation... and the loan can be paid back over time with worth-less (as opposed to worthless) dollars. He considers a 30 year mortgage on distressed property to be a legitimate idea.
Daley is also mindful of crumbling consumer confidence. Not simply an unemployment rate that is hoovering near 10%, but people who are starting to find a knack for thrift. I even met a doctor who is talking about fixing things in his own house... something that was unheard of two years ago!!! For instance, if the Cash for Clunkers program were to gain passage in Congress, it could create a new revenue stream for car manufacturers. Let's face it, a company like Toyota who will eventually pick up some market share from the GM and Chrylser bankruptcies in the future needs real help in the here and now. Facing an unprecedented loss (the first in 71 years), TM realizes that credit markets in the United States, and a desire for their product have created current losses at $1.6 billion through March, and could eventually hit double digits by year end. (3)
CSTR
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:CSTR Last blog I mentioned my Red Box experience. I even made reference to Red Box Killing the Video store. on our trip to Tennessee, I noted a Red Box in a McDonald's. Now it is next to impossible to get anything into a McDonald's. However, upon further research we have found a business relationship between the two entities. A Red Box in every McDonald's would mean MASSIVE leverage.
However, I am always mindful that innovation in the information age comesquicky... And when it hits... it is often fast and lethal in the business world. I believe the day of DVD rentals is approaching a rapid end. More than likely, we will witness on-line video stores via cable or satellite. Maybe even via the internet. That would turn the lights off on Red Box, Blockbuster, and any other brick and mortar business.
at $25 per share of CSTR, this might be a short candidate, especially it the stock hits $30.00 via half-baked speculation.
1. http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=404328&special=highlights
2. http://www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=404328&special=highlights
3. http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/23/toyota-sales-2/
Friday, June 26, 2009
Michael Jackson and the Federal Government... Coming to a Town Near You...
Michael Jackson and the Federal Government
O.K., I'll admit it. I grew up in the 80's and listened to some of Michael Jackson's music... How couldn't you? Michael Jackson in the 80's was like Elvis in the 50s, The Beatles in the 60s, and The Rolling Stone in the 70s. But enough of the stardom talk. After all singers come and singers go... and while each have entertained us in a unique and revolutionary way, there is always another star waiting to take the spotlight.
We can make several observations about Michael Jackson:
1. MJ had a name the preceded him; and a brand name has a value unto itself.
2. MJ owned a considerable amount of property rights from artistic property (see Jackson Five, Beatles, and Michael Jackson)... and a ton of other collectibles.
3. MJ was on the verge of bankruptcy because his liabilities far exceeded his assets... Most reasonable assets list his debt at $500,000,000.
To be sure, there is a long list of creditors that will be left holding the bag once Michael Jackson's estate is settled. Undoubtedly, someone will own the Neverland Ranch, someone else will own the property rights to Billy Jean, and who knows what will happen to the Beatles music. But that is part of the problem when you are in debt... your creditors are not necessarily your friends... and in the end, their need to collect on a debt will supersede any final wishes Jackson had for his estate. One of his creditors went as far as to book a 50 date tour for Jackson that was to start in the near future... Only having insurance on 10 of the 50 dates as no shows, these speculators will be at the bottom of a very long list.
The Office of Accounting released a statistic today that the United States will exceed 100% of GDP by 2023. That means that our country will be officially broke by that date. Some of the more hawkish figures have the date moved up approximately three years to 2020. During WWII, we sold War Bonds to help raise money to pay for the war. This time around, we are in way over our heads, as governments like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are holding our debt. And just like Michael Jackson found out, your creditors are not always your friends... and in the end, they own you!!!
I do however, believe that there are workable solutions to our problems... tough decisions, no doubt. Hard decisions, absolutely. Painful choices, for sure. And to be quite frank, I am not so certain that Congress nor the American people will have the stomach to make the necessary changes until a crisis actually hits... By then, a lot of the difficult decisions will be made out of pure necessity. Hopefully, we can all learn a lesson from Michael Jackson.
Coming to a Town Near You...
According to the National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling, the United States is experiencing its third great gambling wave. The first wave took place during the 1840s to 60 with the opening of the Wild West, and riverboat runs up and down the Mississippi. The second great wave took place from 1910 to approximately 1929 where mafia families pushed numbers rackets in factories, and gambling halls in speak easies. Now the 1990's to 2010s marks the third great gambling wave in the United States.
I write this from the view point of an Ohioan who has voted against legalized gambling on three separate ballot issues. It is not that I do not like gambling, it is more that I do not like gambling in my back yard. Look at the states that have legalized casino gambling, and at the root of every casino you will find rich and opportunistic millionaires trying to become billionaires on someone else's dime.
In Ohio, Governor Stickland who was once a minister, social worker, Congressman, and now governor is trying to pass legislation that will have the state legislature create a slots in race track bill and simply sing it into law. This is the equivalent of political suicide. The governor recognizes that casinos are not good for the state, but he is desperate to find money... any money to keep Ohio away from the time of fiscal meltdown that is taking place in California.
Fellow blogger Ax (www.bigbigbet.blogspot.com) observed the impact a casino in Philadelphia will have on Atlantic City. The impact will be devastating. Yet, I will also remind readers that any government that is reliant on seeing its citizens lose money in casinos, is a government that is doomed to fail. Call me a conservative... call me a do-gooder... and yes, call me a guy who does not mind a game of chance... But a casino on every street corner is not the American Dream.
WYNN and MCRI still very much remain on my short list. MCRI in particular lost approximately 9% of its value today. EFU, SRS, and TM still remain on the short list.
SLV and D are long. Possibly FAZ when it breeches 4.5.
O.K., I'll admit it. I grew up in the 80's and listened to some of Michael Jackson's music... How couldn't you? Michael Jackson in the 80's was like Elvis in the 50s, The Beatles in the 60s, and The Rolling Stone in the 70s. But enough of the stardom talk. After all singers come and singers go... and while each have entertained us in a unique and revolutionary way, there is always another star waiting to take the spotlight.
We can make several observations about Michael Jackson:
1. MJ had a name the preceded him; and a brand name has a value unto itself.
2. MJ owned a considerable amount of property rights from artistic property (see Jackson Five, Beatles, and Michael Jackson)... and a ton of other collectibles.
3. MJ was on the verge of bankruptcy because his liabilities far exceeded his assets... Most reasonable assets list his debt at $500,000,000.
To be sure, there is a long list of creditors that will be left holding the bag once Michael Jackson's estate is settled. Undoubtedly, someone will own the Neverland Ranch, someone else will own the property rights to Billy Jean, and who knows what will happen to the Beatles music. But that is part of the problem when you are in debt... your creditors are not necessarily your friends... and in the end, their need to collect on a debt will supersede any final wishes Jackson had for his estate. One of his creditors went as far as to book a 50 date tour for Jackson that was to start in the near future... Only having insurance on 10 of the 50 dates as no shows, these speculators will be at the bottom of a very long list.
The Office of Accounting released a statistic today that the United States will exceed 100% of GDP by 2023. That means that our country will be officially broke by that date. Some of the more hawkish figures have the date moved up approximately three years to 2020. During WWII, we sold War Bonds to help raise money to pay for the war. This time around, we are in way over our heads, as governments like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are holding our debt. And just like Michael Jackson found out, your creditors are not always your friends... and in the end, they own you!!!
I do however, believe that there are workable solutions to our problems... tough decisions, no doubt. Hard decisions, absolutely. Painful choices, for sure. And to be quite frank, I am not so certain that Congress nor the American people will have the stomach to make the necessary changes until a crisis actually hits... By then, a lot of the difficult decisions will be made out of pure necessity. Hopefully, we can all learn a lesson from Michael Jackson.
Coming to a Town Near You...
According to the National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling, the United States is experiencing its third great gambling wave. The first wave took place during the 1840s to 60 with the opening of the Wild West, and riverboat runs up and down the Mississippi. The second great wave took place from 1910 to approximately 1929 where mafia families pushed numbers rackets in factories, and gambling halls in speak easies. Now the 1990's to 2010s marks the third great gambling wave in the United States.
I write this from the view point of an Ohioan who has voted against legalized gambling on three separate ballot issues. It is not that I do not like gambling, it is more that I do not like gambling in my back yard. Look at the states that have legalized casino gambling, and at the root of every casino you will find rich and opportunistic millionaires trying to become billionaires on someone else's dime.
In Ohio, Governor Stickland who was once a minister, social worker, Congressman, and now governor is trying to pass legislation that will have the state legislature create a slots in race track bill and simply sing it into law. This is the equivalent of political suicide. The governor recognizes that casinos are not good for the state, but he is desperate to find money... any money to keep Ohio away from the time of fiscal meltdown that is taking place in California.
Fellow blogger Ax (www.bigbigbet.blogspot.com) observed the impact a casino in Philadelphia will have on Atlantic City. The impact will be devastating. Yet, I will also remind readers that any government that is reliant on seeing its citizens lose money in casinos, is a government that is doomed to fail. Call me a conservative... call me a do-gooder... and yes, call me a guy who does not mind a game of chance... But a casino on every street corner is not the American Dream.
WYNN and MCRI still very much remain on my short list. MCRI in particular lost approximately 9% of its value today. EFU, SRS, and TM still remain on the short list.
SLV and D are long. Possibly FAZ when it breeches 4.5.
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